![]() ![]() ![]() When the fighting began, Tversky and Kahneman were assigned to the psychology unit embedded in the Israeli army. The Yom Kippur War began when Syria and Egypt launched a joint attack on October 6, 1973. However, in Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that not only do chaotic situations defy prediction, but that our very predictions themselves change the future.) In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardener emphasize that accurate prediction hinges on avoiding cognitive bias, as well as focusing on statistical probabilities and taking a wide perspective of events. (Shortform note: While much has been written in hindsight about failures in military intelligence, the problem of accurate forecasting remains an issue to this day. They shifted their focus to examine the decision-making process and gave birth to a theory that overturned our understanding of human behavior in general. Lewis writes that in the years following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Kahneman and Tversky were particularly troubled by their government’s failure to predict the attack. The following military conflict gave fresh urgency to the problem of uncovering the foibles of the mind. The Duo in Action (1973-1977)īy 1973, Kahneman and Tversky were ready to summarize their findings, but once again, war intervened in their lives. ![]()
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